Germany’s snap federal election on February 23 has become a battleground for Europe’s political future, with explosive new polls showing the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) poised to become Parliament’s second-largest party – and no clear path to stability for Europe’s economic powerhouse.
The Numbers That Changed Everything
Latest surveys show Friedrich Merz’s center-right CDU/CSU leading at 28-31%, but the real story lies in the AfD’s meteoric 19-21% polling – nearly double their 2021 result. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD has collapsed to 14-16%, while his coalition partners face disaster:
| Party | 2021 Result | 2025 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| CDU/CSU | 24.1% | 28-31% |
| AfD | 10.3% | 19-21% |
| SPD | 25.7% | 14-16% |
| Greens | 14.8% | 11-13% |
| FDP | 11.5% | 3-4%* |
*Risking elimination below 5% threshold
The Coalition Nightmare
Germany’s complex proportional system requires alliances, but:
- CDU’s traditional partner FDP faces possible extinction
- All mainstream parties refuse to work with AfD despite its surge
- “Grand Coalition” CDU-SPD marriage of inconvenience emerges as only viable option – the same arrangement that fueled voter disillusionment under Angela Merkel
Musk Factor: Tech Billionaire Throws Gasoline on Fire
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has emerged as surprise kingmaker:
- Endorsed AfD as “Germany’s only hope” on X (formerly Twitter)
- Hosted live interview with AfD leader Alice Wiedel
- Spoke at AfD campaign rally in Dresden
What Comes Next?
A CDU-SPD coalition would control 44-47% of seats – enough to govern but likely unstable. Political analysts warn:
- Economic reforms could stall amid coalition infighting
- Far-right may capitalize on government paralysis
- EU leadership vacuum as Germany focuses inward
